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Yesterday's market movement was quite volatile. After a low open, the main index briefly surged to 4190 points, hitting a new high, but once a policy cooling signal was announced at midday, it immediately staged a sharp plunge from the high, finally stabilizing near the 8-day moving average. The day's high and low points differed by nearly 90 points, leaving a small candlestick with long upper and lower shadows at the close. From individual stocks, the number of gainers and losers was fairly balanced, and trading volume expanded to 1.61 trillion, about 130 billion more than the previous day.
The signals released by the market are worth pondering. The volume contraction and surge in the morning already hinted at the problem—insufficient follow-through volume. In this divergence between volume and price, the market itself is in a sensitive stage of "high altitude is hard to bear." Once policies cool down, profit-taking by investors begins immediately, making sharp declines a natural outcome.
What will happen next? After the afternoon's massive turnover-driven decline, the market is likely to enter a period of high-level consolidation and fluctuation. There are two possibilities: one is that the market resilience exceeds expectations, using time to digest positions; the other is that the absorption strength is insufficient, possibly filling the 4082-point gap and then seeking new upward opportunities above the golden ratio level of 4047 points. The support level at 4040 points mentioned earlier was based on the old high; now that the index has hit a new high, the support level should be adjusted to 4047 points accordingly.
Want to push higher to reach a new high? It now requires even greater volume to support, which is unlikely in the short term. On one hand, the authorities' cooling attitude is very clear; major funds will not forcibly push the market up against regulatory red lines. Therefore, intra-day rebounds should be viewed more as a technical rebound after oversold conditions, and this rebound is a good opportunity to reduce positions at high points. On the other hand, after yesterday's turbulence, the market's vitality has been largely depleted, and the pace of hot sector speculation will slow down, with volume shrinking accordingly. Notably, after yesterday's big shakeout, the market may trigger a style shift, with funds flowing from high-position thematic sectors to low-position value stocks to seek new opportunities.
Looking at key levels: 4165 points (the midpoint of yesterday's upper shadow) forms a relatively strong resistance; the 5-day moving average at around 4137 points acts as both support and resistance, and when the index approaches, the battle between bulls and bears will intensify; the 10-day moving average at 4088 points is close to the below gap at 4082 points, forming a support zone; the 13-day moving average at around 4058 points is a strong support area.
Based on the above analysis, here are today's trading ideas:
**Scenario 1**: If the market rebounds upward and runs into the 4137 to 4165 point range, it is advisable to take profits at high points and reduce holdings accordingly.
**Scenario 2**: If the market consolidates sideways around yesterday's close of 4126 points, those stocks with good gains can be sold to lock in profits, while waiting for opportunities to rotate into low-position stocks.
**Scenario 3**: If the market declines and falls back to the 10-day moving average at 4088 points, investors who are not heavily long or have already taken profits at high levels can consider partial replenishment, but be cautious of the risk of further decline to fill the 4082-point gap.
**Scenario 4**: If the decline continues and after filling the 4082 gap, the index moves toward the 13-day moving average at 4058 points, it is recommended to buy on dips boldly and seize the adjustment window for layout.