#美国消费者物价指数发布在即 【January 15 Morning Market Analysis】

Let's start with a detail that is easy to overlook—the recent surge of Bitcoin. Many attribute the rally to the CPI positive data, but in fact, the market's upward momentum had already been brewing. CPI data was like a match that ignited the already stacked firewood, and combined with various positive news resonating together, the coin price surged so quickly.

However, there is a phenomenon worth cautioning: the amplitude of breaking new highs is narrowing. Previously, a single wave of rally could run 4000-5000 points; now, it's only about 2000 points. What does this indicate? The upward momentum is waning, and the strength of the advance is clearly not as fierce as before.

That said, decaying momentum does not mean the trend has reversed. The current market is still in the accumulation phase of the upward cycle, and it is highly likely to continue pushing higher later. Entering short positions now carries too much risk.

**Technical outlook?**

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has been consistently bullish, breaking through previous highs strongly yesterday, showing clear bullish characteristics. However, on the hourly chart, around 97,000, there is some hesitation, and a short-term adjustment might be needed.

Indicators are interesting: the hourly MACD is above the zero line, but the red bars are narrowing, indicating the bulls are losing some strength; meanwhile, the daily MACD red bars are expanding continuously, so the bullish trend remains stable. The RSI also hints at some signals—on the hourly chart, it has reached 75, showing overbought conditions, increasing the risk of a pullback; on the daily chart, RSI stays above 70, maintaining its strong attribute.

All moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with daily EMAs neatly trending upward, indicating no problem with the long-term trend.

**Trading idea:** Focus on buying on dips.

$BTC: Buy in the 95200-96200 range, target 97800-98800
$ETH: Buy in the 3270-3310 range, target 3390-3430