Buyback news is flooding the crypto market, but recent $ASTER operations are definitely worth a close look. The fifth phase has repurchased 9.62 million tokens, and another 630,000+ were added in the past 24 hours, with the number of holding addresses increasing by 231. The comment section is all shouting for a rebound, but the logic behind this is not that simple.

Many people apply traditional stock buyback logic to the crypto space, thinking "buyback = price increase," but this is a major misconception. Looking at actual data from 2025 makes it clear: Hyperliquid spent $640 million on buybacks, and the token price indeed multiplied several times; but Jupiter invested $70 million, and the price ended up crashing, almost halting the buyback plan altogether. These completely opposite results indicate that the key is not the buyback itself, but an invisible indicator—Net Flow Efficiency Ratio (NFER).

This indicator essentially asks: can the buyback funds suppress inflationary selling pressure and large unlocks? When NFER is greater than 1, buybacks truly serve as a price support; if less than 1, they are providing liquidity to large holders, who are selling into this wave of buybacks.

Returning to $ASTER, we shouldn’t be scared by the buyback numbers alone. First, where does the buyback money come from? Is it from the protocol’s healthy "self-sustaining" growth through real trading fees, or is it tapping into the treasury’s reserves? This determines the sustainability of the buyback. Second, what are the current inflation rate and unlock schedule? If the monthly inflation is higher, even large buybacks are like a drop in the bucket.

Additionally, the execution pace of the buyback matters. Concentrated buy-ins and dispersed strategies are two different things. The former can easily push prices up and then be hammered down, while the latter can truly absorb chips. $ASTER’s rapid buyback combined with new address growth might indicate new funds entering, but it could also just be a technical market reaction.

To judge whether this buyback is genuinely supporting the market or just a false concept, the key is the trend over the next three months. If the price can stay above the average buyback price and inflation is fully absorbed, then this buyback cycle is meaningful; if the price rises and then falls back, it’s just short-term stimulation with no change in fundamentals. Don’t be swayed by the "Hurry up and buy" momentum in the comment section—there are many pitfalls in the crypto buyback story, and whether you can ride the wave depends entirely on how you interpret these data.