In the past three days, watching the market, a familiar pattern has begun to emerge. BTC's movement is almost identical to the classic double-top trap in 2021—price surges higher, then pulls back, followed by a fake strong rebound approaching the previous high, seemingly signaling a new upward trend. However, during the second surge, trading volume noticeably diminishes, and it ultimately plunges. Back then, this pattern trapped many investors who believed "a breakout equals a bull market."

Now, BTC is repeating this pattern. The two peaks are close in price, and during the second surge, the momentum clearly faltered, with support at the neckline acting as a mere illusion. This is a textbook bearish technical signal.

Some might say that institutional participation has changed the game, and the four-year cycle theory is outdated. That logic sounds reasonable, but details determine success or failure. The core driver of the four-year cycle is the supply-demand shift caused by halving. After the April 2024 halving, BTC took 18 months to reach a record high of $126,000, and the subsequent correction closely follows historical cycle patterns. Although spot ETFs have brought structural buying, recent weeks have seen continuous net outflows of institutional funds, and whale addresses are quietly reducing holdings. The so-called "funds supporting the bottom" is more of a market self-soothing.

What’s more concerning is the timing window. If the cycle inertia continues, the next three weeks are critical for a trend reversal. According to historical patterns, BTC is likely to face a deeper correction. The market's trajectory is clear before our eyes; those who understand it may not profit, but those who don’t will definitely suffer losses.