Nighttime market movements once again test everyone's patience. Ethereum performed exceptionally well in this wave of gains, surging from 3070 all the way above the 3200 threshold, with a single-day increase of over 100 points, which indeed attracted quite a bit of attention. However, after each rapid rally like this, two voices tend to emerge: some worry about missing the opportunity and want to continue buying in, while others start to consider whether to take some profits. This internal conflict itself is worth deep analysis.

Let's start with the most straightforward candlestick perspective to see the true face of this market movement. As of now, Ethereum's intraday high reached 3215, and the low retreated to 3090, presenting a typical "high-low jump" pattern. The upward momentum looks fierce, but there's a detail that is easily overlooked: the 3200 level has not been effectively broken through and stabilized. Using a running analogy, the current state is more like a sprinter who wobbled just before the finish line but hasn't truly crossed it successfully. This is the first layer of risk signal.

What is even more worth warning about is the short-term technical condition. Ethereum has now entered an extremely overbought zone. What does this mean? To put it simply, the throttle has already been pressed to the bottom, and the space for further acceleration is extremely limited. Once there is a reason to brake, the reversal force tends to be quite fierce.

To judge the subsequent direction, we need to analyze from two key cycles. First, look at the overall trend on the daily chart, which is crucial for determining the main direction. Currently, the EMA trend indicator is still in a contracting phase, implying that the market is unlikely to move straight up all the way. Instead, it is more probable to oscillate around the 3200 level, causing investors with weaker psychological defenses to exit early, and then look for opportunities to break through again.

Looking at the MACD indicator's performance makes this even clearer. The obvious feature of increased volume and accumulation is evident, and the DIF and DEA lines have recently finally crossed above critical levels in the short term. This indicates that there is indeed additional capital entering the market in the short term, but how long this momentum can last is uncertain.

Overall, the story of this rally is not over yet, but it’s also not wise to assume it will keep rising indefinitely. A more prudent approach is: don’t rush to chase highs, and don’t stubbornly hold on without action. Instead, consider adjusting your strategy based on your risk tolerance, perhaps by dividing your positions into batches. For holdings with already unrealized profits, you might consider taking some profits at high levels to lock in gains while leaving room for further upside. For those looking to enter the market anew, this is not the most ideal timing.

The market always tests patience and discipline, and this time is no exception. Managing your pace well is more beneficial than blindly chasing the rally, as it will help you survive longer in this game.