There is a major event tonight at 23:00—the final ruling on the tariff policy is coming.

According to data from the prediction market, the probability of losing the case on the tariff policy has soared to 72%, which means that the tariffs already collected are likely to be refunded. At first glance, this seems positive, but the underlying logic is quite complex.

**Recent pressures are here:**

Last year, similar policy news was a bullish signal for the crypto market, but now the situation has changed. Returning money to importers sounds simple, but the actual process is full of uncertainties. The market's previous expectation of "liquidity easing" may be disappointed. Funds will withdraw from risk assets, and combined with policy uncertainties, this puts short-term pressure on the crypto market.

**But from another perspective:**

The weakening of the tariff system will promote the reduction of global financial frictions, which is a long-term positive for risk assets and the decentralized narrative framework.

**Most importantly:** We are now at a crossroads where the old logic is collapsing, and the new logic has yet to take shape. Volatility will be very intense. Don't be tempted to leverage up due to this uncertainty; staying stable through this phase is the right approach.