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The business of crypto arbitrage bots on Polymarket is basically no longer feasible.
Ultimately, it's just two words: competition. Transaction fees erode profits, and competition pushes the bid-ask spread to almost nothing. Projects that rely on "mindless arbitrage" are now just drinking soup.
Interestingly, true expert developers aren't complaining here. They've already turned around. Where are they heading? The sports bot track.
Why? Because that market is in a "just right" state of being—it's not mature enough, efficiency isn't high enough, and there's more room for fine-tuned operations. Trading volume is also continuously expanding. In other words, it's a cake that hasn't been fully competed for yet.
The logic in the crypto world is simple: when a track becomes overly competitive, smart money flows to the next untapped territory.