Recently, the volatility of global risk assets has intensified, and there are significant reasons behind this. According to multiple international media reports, the situation in the Middle East has escalated again. The U.S. government has begun to advise citizens to evacuate Iran and announced an additional 25% tariff on countries engaged in trade with Iran. Trump has approved several military action plans for review, including options for air strikes, cyber warfare, and expansion of Middle East deployments.

The market is rapidly digesting this information. On-chain derivatives platform risk hedging data is quite interesting—probability of the U.S. military taking action before January 23 is 45%, rising to 60% before January 31, and reaching 72% before March 31. These figures have all shown significant increases in the past 24 hours. This reflects participants' changing expectations regarding the potential conflict time window.

Safe-haven assets have become the most direct beneficiaries. Precious metals are hot, with silver prices breaking through $87.5, and gold stabilizing above $4600. Citibank's latest forecast is quite optimistic—gold could reach $5000 in the next three months, and silver could hit $100. This is not an aggressive view but a market vote with real money. Many investors are participating through tools like silver ETFs, but they should also pay attention to transaction costs. Geopolitical risks are reshaping global asset allocation expectations.