When everyone is focused on how the court will rule, I am thinking about the expanding hole in the U.S. Treasury.

Tomorrow, the Supreme Court will make a decision on Trump's tariff policy. The prevailing rumor is unanimous: overturning the tariffs would be a positive for risk assets. It sounds logical, but this is probably just the beginning of the story.

Having navigated the crypto world for many years, I always feel something's off about this kind of "superficial logic." This is not just a trade dispute; it’s more like a potential financial earthquake. The market's optimism may not have fully realized where the real risks lie.

**Superficial Good News, Actual Hidden Trap**

Theoretically, if the Supreme Court rejects the tariff authority, trade tensions could indeed ease. Remember when, in May 2025, China and the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs, Bitcoin briefly surged past $110,000. In the short term, such news can indeed boost risk assets.

But this assumes the market hasn't seen through another problem: the government has already acknowledged that just refunding tariffs will cost hundreds of billions of dollars. Plus legal compensations and various claims, the total bill could easily surpass trillions of dollars.

Here's the key—while the market cheers for rising risk assets, it collectively ignores a fact: once the court rules tariffs illegal, the U.S. Treasury's revenue will take a big hit. Where will this money come from? There are only three options: wildly issuing government bonds, raising taxes, or cutting spending.

This is the real issue to watch closely.