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The recent surge in Bitcoin's price may seem sudden, but there are clear signs of underlying factors at play. The main drivers come from three aspects.
First, inflation data has finally stabilized. The US December CPI year-over-year increase was 2.7%, fully in line with market expectations, and month-over-month figures also showed no deterioration. What does this mean? The Federal Reserve can hold interest rates steady for now, as inflation isn't rebounding and there's no risk of a hard landing for the economy. The market is already largely convinced that the probability of the Fed maintaining current rates in January is as high as 97%. For risk assets like Bitcoin, this news directly removes a major obstacle, encouraging funds to flow in.
Second, changing market expectations are also fueling the rally. As uncertainties in the traditional financial system increase, investors are seeking assets that are less directly controlled by governments for hedging. Bitcoin, as a decentralized and censorship-resistant digital asset, has been redefined as a "hedging tool." When other sectors face issues, many funds turn their attention to this independent alternative asset.
Technical analysis also supports the upward trend. Bitcoin previously oscillated between $90,500 and $91,200, with bulls defending this range. Today’s breakout through the key resistance level of $92,000 has triggered a wave of follow-on buying, creating self-reinforcing upward momentum. Additionally, although recent ETF outflows have occurred, once the price stabilizes, the pressure on funds eases, and capital begins to flow back in.
The triple positive factors—favorable macro data, rising hedging demand, and technical breakthroughs—combine to attract capital. However, the short-term rally has already been quite steep, and whether it can hold steady depends on how market sentiment evolves. For those looking to enter, caution against chasing the high is advised; waiting for better entry opportunities may be a wiser choice.