Market expectations for Federal Reserve policies have undergone a significant adjustment. According to the latest data, the US December core CPI increased by only 0.2% month-on-month, and rose by 2.6% year-on-year. This level has matched the lowest point in four years and is even below market forecasts.

This weakening trend in inflation data has strengthened traders' belief that the Federal Reserve will not maintain high interest rates for a long time. From market pricing, investors have generally reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut rates at least twice starting from 2026.

This shift in expectations is being reflected in asset prices in real time. Particularly, the precious metals sector shows obvious upward momentum, which reflects the market consensus that a rate-cutting cycle is imminent. From now until mid-year, the rate cut window seems to be gradually becoming clearer.