Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about Bitcoin's market trend, and many people are feeling confused about the future direction. Let's analyze the situation based on actual conditions.

From the data, since November last year, the market has been hesitant to decisively break through the key level of 96,000. It took three full months to digest the resistance at 95,000, which in itself indicates that—the market lacks sustained buying support. On a macro level, commodities, the stock market, and Japanese government bonds are all competing for liquidity in the financial markets, which is an objective reality.

Last night, BTC indeed surged to around 96,500, appearing very fierce on the surface, as if aiming for a $100,000 breakthrough. But if you observe carefully, this pulse seems more like a test—mainly to clear out short leverage positions. The actual breakout conditions are not yet in place.

The upcoming rhythm might be as follows: first, a small rebound, then after the short leverage positions are exhausted, Bitcoin is likely to adjust back to around 90,000. Then, as the commodities and stock markets experience a pullback, the liquidity that was drawn away will flow back into the crypto market. Only at this point will Bitcoin have the chance to stabilize above 100,000 and move higher.

Here’s an important point to understand— the speed from 90,000 to 100,000 USD is actually quite fast, but the key is whether it can hold. Any sustainable trend ultimately depends on the combined effort of institutions and retail investors, which boils down to profit motives. Currently, the crypto market has not yet formed a highly concentrated liquidity pattern, so patience may be wiser than rushing in.