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Recently, Bitcoin has performed strongly, with a daily increase of 3.54%, breaking through the $92,000 mark and reversing market sentiment. The driving force behind this rally is worth a detailed analysis—the most direct catalyst comes from the release of the December US CPI data.
The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the December CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, remaining flat compared to the previous month and in line with market expectations. Behind this seemingly ordinary data, it actually conveys a core signal: inflation is operating within a controllable range. This is highly significant for risk assets. The market's greatest fear has never been the absolute level of inflation, but rather unexpected volatility. If the data rebounds, the Fed's rate hike expectations will reignite, putting risk assets under pressure; if it drops sharply, concerns about an economic recession will surface, leading to capital withdrawal. The 2.7% figure precisely eliminates extreme expectations on both ends.
Based on this data, the market has already priced in a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. This certainty directly breaks previous concerns about monetary tightening, and liquidity support in a low-interest-rate environment reemerges. Whether traditional risk assets or cryptocurrencies, they are beginning to reassess their allocation value. Bitcoin's recent rally is a concrete reflection of capital flowing back into assets that benefit from low interest rates.