SOL's surge this morning was indeed fierce, and now it has dropped to around 143. Many are starting to get restless. But don't rush to run just yet—are this correction's main force just a shakeout, or is something really going wrong? Let's analyze the news and the candlestick charts separately.

**Fundamental Analysis: Risk intertwined, short-term bearish**

Geopolitical tensions are heating up, with US military aircraft frequently operating along Iran's border, causing market anxiety to spike. Prediction platforms show the probability of "US military attack on Iran" has been pushed up to 70%. Once such black swan events unfold, funds usually flock to safe-haven assets, and the crypto market can be easily affected.

Wait, tonight the US will release retail sales data and PPI, plus the ruling on Trump's tariffs—these events stacking together. If the data exceeds expectations or if there's a reversal in tariff policies, the Fed's hawkish expectations could strengthen, making it unlikely for risk assets to perform well.

In simple terms, the news sentiment is currently bearish. The dual pressures of geopolitics and macro factors are resonating, and market cautiousness is high. SOL will find it hard to break out alone.

**Technical Analysis: Details on the 4-hour chart**

Although the MACD has shown a golden cross, the momentum is clearly shrinking, indicating the upward strength is waning. The RSI is also signaling pressure, and overall, the upward driving force is insufficient.

The key question now is whether the 143 level can hold—if it breaks below, there may be room for further decline in the short term; conversely, if it rebounds and reclaims the previous high, that would be more promising.

But the most critical factor is tonight's economic data. If there are unexpectedly negative surprises, all cryptocurrencies will have to adjust accordingly, not just SOL.