On January 14th, gold prices fluctuated at high levels, oscillating back and forth within the 4580-4620 range. Tonight, US retail sales, PPI data, and Federal Reserve officials' speeches will be the real variables. Breaking through still depends on fundamentals to pierce this glass ceiling.

Key points affecting the market:

December core CPI underperformed expectations, which actually reinforced the market's anticipation of rate cuts. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, the demand for gold as a safe haven has not shown signs of decline. On the other hand, several Fed officials have recently stated that there is no need to cut rates in the short term. The market now prices in a 97.2% probability of holding rates steady in January. The daily RSI has surged to 72, clearly overbought, and the MACD red histogram is shrinking. This high-level divergence is somewhat risky. The 4-hour chart shows more direct signs: top divergence with a doji star, KDJ turning downward, indicating an increased likelihood of a short-term correction.

Around 9:30 PM, US November retail sales (expected +0.4%) and PPI (expected monthly +0.3%) will be released. Following that, Fed officials will begin speaking sequentially from 10:50 PM. If the data is weak, gold may push to new highs; conversely, strong data combined with hawkish comments will increase downward pressure.

From a technical perspective, the daily RSI is in overbought territory, the MACD red histogram is shrinking, and there are signs of divergence at high levels. The 4-hour chart shows top divergence, with a doji star and KDJ turning downward, indicating a rising probability of short-term correction. The 1-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening, with prices moving along the middle band, forming a typical range-bound pattern.

Trading idea: short at 4635, with a stop-loss at 4650, targeting 4570. Of course, the market can always surprise you; this is just a technical and data-based judgment at present. Investment involves risks; be sure to think carefully before acting.