Believe App uses perpetual contracts to stake personal reputation, and social tokens find a new way to play

The Solana ecosystem social token platform Believe App launched its v2 beta iOS version on January 14th, introducing an innovative trading mechanism—the “Human Sentiment Market.” This is not just a simple token issuance but allows users to perpetually bet on the rise and fall of individual reputation. The first market launched corresponds to founder Ben Pasternak, with the current “belief score” showing 62% of users optimistic.

A New Mechanism for Perpetual Betting on Personal Reputation

The Clever Design of Dual Tokens

The core innovation of Believe App lies in the introduction of two tokens: Believe and Doubt. When users are optimistic about someone’s reputation, they buy Believe tokens; when they are pessimistic, they buy Doubt tokens. The most interesting aspect of this design is that—the total value of the two tokens always remains fixed at 1 USD.

What does this mean? Simply put, it’s a zero-sum game. When the Believe token price rises, the Doubt token must fall. This constant total value design ensures market liquidity and trading symmetry, avoiding the potential infinite dilution issues common with traditional tokens.

An Everlasting Market That Never Settles

Unlike traditional futures or prediction markets, the Believe App’s market never settles. There is no expiration date, no final judgment. Users can hold and trade these two tokens indefinitely, reflecting real-time market sentiment on an individual’s reputation.

This design has two significant implications: first, it lowers the participation barrier—no need to wait for a specific event to profit, as long as the betting direction aligns with market trends; second, it creates a real-time “reputation barometer,” continuously tracking personal market recognition.

From Social Tokens to Prediction Markets

Product Positioning Innovation

The project team emphasizes that this version aims to use “real-time sentiment tracking” as an entry point, simplifying the transition from Meme tokens to prediction markets.

What does this imply? Believe App is creating a fusion of:

• The community aspect and engagement of social tokens
• The information aggregation and price discovery functions of prediction markets
• The fun and topicality of Meme culture

By betting on personal reputation—a concept close to daily life—it makes it easier for ordinary users to understand and participate in prediction market logic.

Imagination for Future Expansion

According to the project team’s plan, early on, high-profile individuals will be manually deployed as market targets. But later, it could expand to any X accounts, meaning any influential person might be “marketized.”

Additionally, the introduced fee-sharing mechanism is noteworthy—it could provide some incentives or compensation to the individuals being bet on, creating a利益循环 involving participants, the platform, and the targeted individuals.

Summary

Believe App’s v2 version demonstrates an interesting idea: using perpetual trading and a fixed total value mechanism to turn personal reputation into tradable assets. This simplifies the complexity of prediction markets while retaining the community attributes of social tokens.

The key points are threefold: first, the clever design of the dual-token fixed total value mechanism addresses liquidity and symmetry issues; second, the never-settling market turns into a real-time reputation tracking tool; third, the transition from Meme tokens to prediction markets, if successful, could attract many users interested in prediction markets but find them too complex.

Future focus should be on how this mechanism performs when extended to any X accounts, and how to design the fee-sharing system to foster a healthy participation ecosystem.