Employment data just threw a wrench into the playbook

Unemployment ticked down to 4.4%, beating the 4.5% forecast and continuing its downtrend from 4.6%. So far so good, right?

But here's where it gets messy—job creation is hitting the brakes hard. Non-farm payrolls landed at just 50K against expectations of 66K. That's a notable miss. Hiring momentum is clearly cooling off.

The real headache? Wage pressure. Hourly earnings data painted a concerning picture for those banking on inflation cooling further. When hiring slows while wage costs stay elevated, you've got a policy problem. The Fed's stuck between a rock and a hard place. Easy rate cuts look less likely, which reshuffles the entire risk-on narrative that's been fueling recent market moves.

For traders watching this unfold, it's a reminder that economic slowdowns don't always come with the soft-landing script everyone's betting on.