Hard Red Wheat Futures Surge as Most Active Contracts Attract Strong Buying Interest

2025-12-23 16:52:44

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The wheat market demonstrated notable strength during Thursday’s session, with most active contracts across the hard red spectrum advancing considerably. Spring and winter hard red wheat futures registered gains across major exchanges, signaling increased investor confidence in the sector.

Price Performance Across Key Contracts

The most active contracts showed varied but universally positive momentum. Chicago SRW futures climbed 1-2 cents, while KC HRW contracts delivered more substantial gains, finishing 9-10 cents higher. Minneapolis spring wheat emerged as the top performer, advancing 10-11 cents on the day. Specifically, CBOT March 26 wheat finished at $5.07 3/4 (up 1 1/2 cents) and May 26 at $5.18 3/4 (also up 1 1/2 cents). KCBT March 26 completed at $5.17 (up 9 1/4 cents) and May 26 at $5.29 1/4 (gaining 9 cents). MGEX March 26 closed at $5.73 (up 11 cents) and May 26 at $5.83 (up 10 1/2 cents).

Export Momentum Continues to Build

Thursday’s export data revealed robust demand for U.S. wheat. The week ending November 27 registered 460,655 MT in sales commitments, positioning within the middle range of analyst expectations (250,000-600,000 MT band). This represented a substantial 27.4% jump from the prior week and outpaced the year-ago period by 21.8%. The cumulative export commitment standing now totals 18.94 MMT, equivalent to 696 million bushels—a figure running 21.8% ahead of the prior year’s pace at this juncture.

Global Supply Picture Shapes Market Outlook

Production forecasts from key growing regions indicate tightening conditions ahead. Expana’s latest assessment pegs the EU soft wheat crop for 2026/27 at 128.3 MMT, implying an 8.5 MMT contraction compared to current-year levels. Meanwhile, SovEcon estimates Russia’s 2026 wheat production at 83.8 MMT, maintaining its previous projection but reflecting a 5 MMT decline year-over-year. These supply adjustments underpin the bullish sentiment evident in most active contracts and support sustained buying pressure in the wheat complex.

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