#美联储降息 After seeing JPMorgan's analysis, I have to say this sounds quite painful - the interest rate cut expectations have been fully priced in, and the US stock market is facing profit-taking pressure at high points. I'm very familiar with this logic because I've suffered the same loss in the crypto world.

Do you remember those years when, before every macro positive news, smart money would quietly cash out, while retail investors were still celebrating, thinking they had bought at the bottom? JPMorgan said to lock in profits by the end of the year instead of increasing exposure, which is actually telling us: the expectation gap has disappeared.

The most heartbreaking part is this: Although the Federal Reserve's stance is dovish and liquidity is loose, data from Greeks.Live shows that the crypto market is currently relatively weak, with poor liquidity at the end of the year, and a slow decline is the mainstream expectation. What does this indicate? It indicates that paper benefits and actual market energy are completely two different matters.

My lesson is simple - don't be dazzled by the macro environment. Interest rate cuts, QE, and liquidity all sound like good news, but what really drives the market is the enthusiasm and real purchasing power of market participants. Right now, 50% of option positions are piled up at the end of December, and BTC is pinned at the 100,000 mark. These are all signals - institutions are waiting, and retail investors are in fear.

Good things take time; it’s not too late to look again after the new year. The most important thing now is not to chase the rise, but to avoid pitfalls.