#美联储降息 Fed cuts interest rates + Morgan Stanley optimistic about the 2026 bull run, this combination sounds very tempting, but I have to be honest - this is exactly the moment that is easiest to get carried away.

I have seen too many people dive headfirst into various projects under the banner of "institutional optimism" that are labeled as "cyclical recovery". Do you remember that wave in 2021? It was the same expectation of interest rate policy + institutions being bullish, and what was the result? A large number of people bought at high prices, and under the guise of "long-term value investment", they were completely cleaned out.

The key issue here is: the Fed's interest rate cuts will indeed release liquidity, but this liquidity never first flows to the small projects in the hands of retail investors. It will first accumulate in large-cap, blue-chip, and institutional-heavy positions. By the time the atmosphere is at its hottest, various small coins and small-cap projects will start to rally, and at this point, it is often already a signal for the final relay.

The bull run in 2026 may indeed come, but every month before that is a trap zone. My advice is simple: now is not the time to chase the rise, but to evaluate people. Those projects and communities that are frantically promoting with the two reasons of "Fed rate cuts + institutional optimism" can basically be directly blacklisted. True long-term value will not be in such a hurry to urge you to enter.

The secret to living long is: Don't try to profit from every wave, first learn to avoid every pit.