#以太坊行情解读 Central Bank "Ice and Fire Showdown," Bitcoin Falls into a Dilemma

Winter 2025 was supposed to be lively, but the crypto market is shrouded in an eerie chill. $BTC has been repeatedly tugging between $86,000 and $88,000, with the trend resembling an invisible hand tearing at it, and traders' moods fluctuating along with the candlestick charts. The root of this cold wave is clear—both the US and Japanese central banks are going against the grain.

The recent move by the Bank of Japan is powerful and not to be underestimated. The December 18-19 rate decision meeting almost confirmed a 25 basis point hike to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years. Don’t think this is just symbolic. What’s hidden behind it? The "Yen arbitrage channel" that has fueled global risk assets is collapsing.

For years, big international funds played this game: borrow yen at nearly zero cost, then convert to dollars to buy high-yield assets like Bitcoin and US stocks. It seemed low risk—so long as the yen didn’t appreciate, there was profit. But rate hikes changed everything. The cost of borrowing yen surged, and expectations of yen appreciation began to ferment. The once profitable arbitrage trades instantly turned into losses. Institutional investors had no choice but to sell holdings and convert back to yen to repay debts.

History does not lie. Looking back at 2024-2025, every time Japan signals tightening, Bitcoin experiences a 20-30% plunge. The reaction in the options market is even more exaggerated—put options are wiped out, and large funds are frantically buying short insurance. This is not coincidence; it’s a direct reflection of capital flows.

But there’s a "disturber"—the US Federal Reserve. Recently, a 25 basis point rate cut has been implemented, and officials are hinting at further easing in 2026. If next week’s non-farm payrolls and CPI data come in soft, the market will solidify expectations of continued easing. Once dollar liquidity loosens, hot money will naturally flow into "digital gold" Bitcoin, and the $90,000 level could be within reach.

The contradiction lies here: Japan is aggressively easing liquidity, while the US is pouring in liquidity. Bitcoin is caught in the middle, like a tug-of-war rope. The market itself has little resilience—early in the year, a target of 150,000 was called, but after peaking in October, it started to slide. ETF outflows are accelerating, and the old halving routine has failed. Leverage liquidations are driving this big decline. The critical life-and-death line at $82,800 (the two-year moving average) is looming—once broken, the consequences could be dire.

In the coming days, the final decision from the Bank of Japan and the release of US economic data will unveil the fog. Whether Bitcoin and $ETH rebound on the Fed’s easing or continue to be suppressed by Japan’s sell-off depends on this battle. It’s not just a price game but a test of position management and market intuition.