The people staring at this data dashboard all understand — the window for a market shift has opened again.

Tonight at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be announced. Market expectations are at 191,000, with last week's actual figure at 220,000. The three words "To Be Announced" currently displayed on the screen feel like a finger on the trigger.

Why can a routine employment indicator shake the entire crypto market?

The reason isn't complicated. This data directly reflects the Federal Reserve's next move. Here's how to see it:

**If the data declines** (for example, below 190,000) — employment remains strong, and the economy hasn't cooled down. The Fed is likely to maintain a hawkish stance, continuing a high interest rate environment. The dollar can hold up, but risk assets will struggle. Short-term, assets like BTC are likely to face downward pressure.

**If the data rises** (especially if it surpasses the previous figure of 220,000) — the labor market is beginning to crack, signaling an economic slowdown. Expectations for rate cuts immediately increase, the dollar weakens, and Bitcoin, as a beneficiary of a loose liquidity cycle, is likely to rally sharply.

In simple terms, this isn't an isolated numerical game. It's the switch for dollar liquidity expectations. Once triggered, global risk appetite shifts instantly.

So what should you do now?

A few honest words: seasoned traders understand — don't