ETH has just experienced a "anticipated squeeze."

A few minutes after the Federal Reserve's rate cut was implemented, the interest rate futures market threw a cold bucket of water: the probability of a pause in rate cuts in January next year jumped from 70% directly to 78%. This is not a technical adjustment; this is the market voting with real money— the story of a "dovish cycle" may be coming to an end.

Looking back, how many people were still celebrating the rate cut yesterday? Today, they are told that the next "liquidity booster" is unlikely to arrive. The speed of this plot reversal is a textbook-level failure of expectations management.

What's even more brutal is that the price increase is likely just to facilitate a high-position exit. Institutions push the price up with liquidity, retail investors chase the high, and then, at the moment of "expectation falsification," they sharply sell off. You think you're surfing, but you're actually providing liquidity for others' exit plans.

The pressing question now is not "how much can it still rise," but "if the dovish expectation fully fails, does my position logic still hold?" If the answer is "it's all just supported by rate cut expectations," then you may need to reassess the risks.

The crypto market is never short of stories; what it lacks is a plan of action after those stories break down. Central banks won't be saviors forever, and liquidity can't be supplied infinitely. When the tap is turned off, who is swimming naked? It's obvious to see.

Don't die believing in your faith, nor die from misjudging the macro environment. Markets will never notify you of turning points in advance; they only tell you through price— and by then, it's often too late.