Gemini secures key CFTC license, officially opening the door to the US prediction market

Gemini’s subsidiary Gemini Titan has officially received a designated contract market license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This license allows Gemini to offer prediction market contract trading based on future events to clients in the United States.

This approval has been described by Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss as “the culmination of a five-year licensing process and the beginning of a new chapter for Gemini.”

01 Core of the Event: A Five-Year Regulatory Breakthrough

Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has obtained a designated contract market license granted by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This approval is the result of five years of regulatory review following Gemini’s initial application on March 10, 2020.

According to official information, the platform Gemini Titan will initially launch “event contracts,” which are simple “yes or no” questions about future events.

For example, “Will the price of 1 Bitcoin exceed $200,000 by the end of this year?” or “Will Elon Musk’s X Corporation pay the full $140 million fine to the European Commission in 2026?”

U.S. clients will soon be able to trade these contracts via Gemini’s web interface using USD in their accounts, with mobile trading functionality expected to launch in the future.

02 In-Depth of the License: The Significance of DCM and Gemini’s Blueprint

A designated contract market is one of the highest levels of authorization granted by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission for trading venues for derivatives such as futures and options. Obtaining this license means Gemini can operate a derivatives trading market legally within a strict federal regulatory framework.

Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss has expressed high praise, believing “prediction markets have the potential to be as large as, or even larger than, traditional capital markets.”

The company’s vision extends beyond prediction markets. In an official statement, Gemini explicitly states that it may explore expanding derivatives offerings for U.S. clients to include cryptocurrency futures, options, and perpetual contracts in the future.

Perpetual contracts have gained enormous popularity and attention in Asian and other non-U.S. markets over the past decade. Gemini’s move aims to bring these highly liquid, innovative contracts into the U.S. market.

03 Market Impact: New Tracks and the Progress of Compliance

Despite obtaining an important regulatory license, market reactions to Gemini’s parent company’s financial performance remain cautious. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s stock has experienced high volatility recently, with a decline of over 64% in the past six months.

Financial analysis shows that Gemini reported an EBITDA of negative $231.5 million and a gross profit margin of -12.26% over the past twelve months.

Some institutional analysts have adjusted their target prices following Gemini’s release of Q3 2025 financial results. For example, Rosenblatt lowered the target price from $30 to $26, while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

This regulatory development occurs within a specific policy context. Gemini CEO Tyler Winklevoss specifically thanked U.S. President and Acting Chair Pham in a statement, praising their “efforts to realize the vision of making the U.S. the world’s cryptocurrency capital.”

04 Comparison and Insights: Gate’s Differentiation Advantages

While Gemini is pioneering the compliant U.S. derivatives market with its DCM license, global trading platforms like Gate have long provided users with mature and diverse crypto derivatives services in broader markets.

Compared to Gemini’s newly launched prediction market, Gate users can access a full suite of derivative tools—including perpetual contracts, futures, and options—without waiting. These products have been tested extensively in non-U.S. markets and possess deep liquidity.

In the face of increasingly complex global regulatory environments, choosing a trading platform with a comprehensive product lineup, extensive market experience, and stable accessibility is crucial.

As a leading platform serving global users, Gate is committed to prioritizing cutting-edge, highly liquid crypto financial products within a compliant framework. This “user-first” product strategy ensures traders can seize opportunities in rapidly changing markets.

Gemini’s recent acquisition of a CFTC license further highlights the trend of parallel compliance and innovation in the crypto field. Whether Gemini, focused on specific market compliance breakthroughs, or Gate, offering comprehensive global services, are driving the industry toward a more mature and professional direction.

For traders, this means a richer array of products, a safer trading environment, and broader market horizons.

This license issuance is not only a milestone for an exchange but also a signal of the deep integration between the crypto industry and mainstream financial regulation frameworks. It indicates that future crypto trading and investment will operate on a dual track of innovation and compliance, becoming more robust.