12.10 BTC Morning Market Analysis

I. Logic Support

1. Macro Event Pre-positioning: The US Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision will be released tonight, and the market is already active in anticipation. The current 92,100 level is at the center of a tug-of-war between "rate cut expectations pricing" and "pre-decision caution," with volatility likely to remain high.
2. Technical Bull-Bear Divergence: The daily chart previously broke through the strong 94,000 resistance and then pulled back. It is currently supported by the EMA convergence zone (90,300-90,400), but the 1-hour K-line is suppressed by the Bollinger Bands middle band, and the MACD bearish momentum has not been fully released, forming a "support below, pressure above" consolidation pattern.
3. Capital Flow Warning: There was a $200 million long liquidation early this morning. While whale capital has been positioning, ETF inflows are weak, and there is a lack of sustained buying power for a continued rally in the short term, with pullback needs not fully digested.

II. Trend Qualitative Analysis

Short-term consolidation with a bearish bias, no clear trending move: As of 9:40 a.m., BTC has not stabilized above the key 92,500 resistance level and is showing a "lower highs" weak consolidation structure. Hourly bullish momentum is weakening. It is difficult to break the consolidation range before the Fed decision, and the probability of testing support is higher than that of breaking upward.

III. Trading Strategies

Long

- Entry: 91,000-91,500 | Stop Loss: Below 90,300 | Target: 92,300-92,500

Short

- Entry: 92,500-92,800 | Stop Loss: Above 93,000 | Target: 91,200-91,500
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