Has Bitcoin reached the bottom?

In our update from late November (see here), we showed, based on the Elliott Wave Principle (EW), why our positive outlook for Bitcoin remains, as "the ongoing fourth corrective wave targets $86,000-$101,000, which could see an increase to $164,000-$216,000. However, comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of annual, monthly, and daily charts suggests the decline may continue to around $74,000 ± $2,000 first before the rally."

So far, Bitcoin's price has risen 7% since our last update. It dropped to $80,562 on November 21, then climbed to its current peak today at $94,167. Moreover, the current rally rate (18%) is even more impressive, as the October rally did not exceed 12.5%. But the key question remains: have we reached the bottom?

The rise since that low has been overlapping and can thus be considered a corrective move in an ABC wave form: a small fourth wave. See Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Medium-term Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin since April 2025, with its buy and sell zones

Since Bitcoin's price has approached the bottom at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level at $79,730, matching the ideal target for the third wave, the target for the gray wave (W-iv) is typically the 100.0% Fibonacci extension at $93,717. However, nothing prevents Bitcoin from extending a little further into the orange-blue target zone at $98,000 - $104,000. Still, if its price exceeds the gray Wi indicator’s lowest level at $103,552 recorded on October 17, the likelihood of the larger correction being over increases significantly (over 60%). See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Medium-term Elliott Wave count for Bitcoin since April 2025, with bullish accuracy

Specifically, the price action since the November 21 low has shown an upward trend of higher highs and higher lows, which can be seen as a series of overlapping first and second waves: gray Wi, ii, and orange W-1, 2. The gray W-iii wave of the green W-1 wave (of the red Wv wave, etc.) may now be starting, either as a five-wave impulse or an ABC pattern forming a green leading diagonal W-1. This pattern depends on Bitcoin remaining above at least $87,705, and especially $83,828.

So, at this stage, Bitcoin's price is still somewhat uncertain, but it will eventually trend upward, whether it happens directly or after reaching a low around $78,000 ± $2,000 as we mentioned in our previous update. We will find out soon, as Elliott Wave analysis has prepared us for either scenario. Finally, it's important to understand the tendency of financial markets toward volatility—especially in the short term, which is usually more volatile than the long term—and to navigate between periods of clarity and periods of uncertainty. We are currently in a "less clear" phase, and we can be confident that clarity will return soon.