The Fed's December FOMC meeting is coming up, and this could be one of the most closely watched macro events for the crypto market this year.

First, the timing: the meeting will be held on December 9-10 US time, with the results announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on December 11, followed by Powell's press conference half an hour later. For those planning to watch the market closely, I suggest preparing your coffee in advance.

The market is now basically betting on a 25 basis point rate cut—the probability is over 84%. If the cut happens, the federal funds rate will drop from the current 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. The reason is simple: recent US employment data has been weak, providing justification for a rate cut.

But what's interesting is the internal dynamics. Before the blackout period, more than half of the FOMC members actually leaned towards holding rates steady, so this meeting might see several dissenting votes. Whether Powell can maintain control and push through a rate cut with minimal dissent will be a test of his leadership.

The truly valuable information will come after the meeting: the dot plot and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will reveal the policy path for next year. This is the part BTC and ETH holders need to study carefully—how long will rate cut expectations last? Will easing continue next year?

For the crypto market, short-term liquidity improvement is definitely a positive, but if the dot plot signals a hawkish turn next year, it could be a different story. In short, we'll find out early Thursday morning.