The countdown to the Fed’s interest rate decision is at 48 hours, and market sentiment is starting to get subtle.

Looking at the futures market, traders now tend to bet on a 25 basis point rate cut—but don’t forget, this is just capital voting with its feet, not the Fed’s official script. When the actual meeting comes, who knows if Powell will pull an unexpected move?

What’s even more interesting is that global central banks are no longer on the same page. Europe and the US are playing a “liquidity race,” while the Bank of Japan is going the opposite direction, still considering whether to raise rates. Domestically, the 1-year LPR is currently stuck at 3.0%. At this rate, it’s almost certain to drop below 3% next year.

Next, keep a close eye on two things:

First, the wording of the post-meeting statement. See if the Fed is more dovish than expected or suddenly hawkish—this will directly determine the short-term market direction.

Second, the market reaction logic. Will it be a “sell the news” scenario with a peak and pullback, or will “disappointed expectations” trigger a stampede? This is when the real test comes.