Bitcoin December Rebound: Macro Signals Point to Crypto Recovery

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Driven By Macro Shift Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/coinbase-sees-crypto-recovery-driven-by-macro-shift/

Summary

Bitcoin could start a rebound in December, supported by an improvement in global liquidity and favorable macroeconomic conditions. A major platform’s institutional division identifies several encouraging signals, including a 92% probability of a Fed rate cut. Despite these positive prospects, the market remains dominated by fear, with capital still hesitant to return.

A Recovery Supported by Macroeconomic Fundamentals

Institutional analysts estimate that the combination of improved global liquidity and rising expectations of interest rate cuts could support a crypto market recovery during December.

In a recent report, the platform writes: “we believe that cryptos could be positioned to rebound in December as liquidity improves, Fed rate cut probabilities reach 92%, and macro headwinds become favorable”.

This outlook is notably based on the M2 custom index, which measures the evolution of the global fiat money supply. For the analysts, this indicator reveals a trend reversal after several months of weakness.

This potential year-end rebound is based on a sequence of macroeconomic signals considered convergent:

• A notable improvement in global liquidity, measured by an internal indicator based on the M2 money supply
• A high probability (92% as of early December) of monetary easing by the Fed, according to market expectations
• Expectations of an end to the monetary tightening cycle, likely to revive appetite for risky assets such as bitcoin

However, enthusiasm remains limited. Market observers note that the market is still dominated by fear, with a marked absence of incoming capital, both from institutions and individuals. Volumes on crypto ETFs remain low, and the entire market seems suspended to an uncertain trigger, just days before a highly anticipated monetary decision in the United States.

A Fragile Recovery Under Threat from the Fed and Political Uncertainties

Beyond economic indicators, the central role of the US Federal Reserve in bitcoin’s trajectory is significant.

Analysts believe that Jerome Powell’s press conference, scheduled for December 10 after the FOMC meeting, could have a decisive impact on the market. As one prominent analyst explains: “if the Fed cuts rates on December 10, also ending quantitative tightening (QT), there would be little left to prevent a Christmas rally for Bitcoin, except in the event of a major geopolitical shock”.

However, caution is warranted, as “every word from Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for clues about 2026 monetary policy, and an overly restrictive speech could halt the rally”.

This caution is reinforced by the November precedent, during which bitcoin came under downward pressure following Powell’s remarks. Market participants confirm that “the main market driver currently is macro. We lean towards a recovery, especially since the market has already retested key support levels and technical indicators”.

Added to this are some technical and structural signals deemed encouraging. Another factor could reshape the monetary landscape in the medium term: rumors of possible shifts in central bank leadership in 2026, with potential appointments of economists known for more accommodative positions.