ETH’s rebound this round stalled around 3200, which a lot of people didn’t expect.

First, let’s talk about the first layer of logic: from 2700 up to 3200, that’s a profit margin of 500 points, which is already quite significant. At this level, a large number of early longs will take profits, so naturally, selling pressure appears. More importantly, the pullback can shake out retail investors holding bottom positions with weak hands—this trick is pretty common.

Now for the second layer: 3200 is a subtle spot. It’s not exactly high, since it hasn’t even broken through 3300 or 3400; but it’s definitely had a run-up. So what’s the result? Most people will still think, “It’s still a bear market, it just can’t rise.” But if you’re thinking that way, you might be falling right into the trap. If you’re hoping for a pullback all the way to 2800 or even below 2700, you’ll probably be disappointed.

My view: early next week will likely see another tentative dip, with a possible test around 2900. Don’t rush to short at this level, or you might end up stuck until next spring.

By the way, keep an eye on BTC and SOL as well—their rhythm and correlation are still in play.