#美联储重启降息步伐 The US Department of Commerce released a key report last Friday that had been delayed for several weeks due to the government shutdown: September’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data showed an unexpected change. The month-over-month increase remained at 0.2%, but the year-over-year growth rate dropped to 2.8%, falling below the 2.9% mark for the first time in three months.

Why is this indicator important? Core PCE excludes items with volatile prices such as food and energy, making it a more accurate reflection of long-term inflation trends. It has always been the Federal Reserve's most valued reference when formulating monetary policy. Now that the figure has declined, policymakers suddenly have a bit more room to make adjustments.

Interestingly, the period covered by this data actually ended before the record-breaking government shutdown began (October 1). In other words, even before the administrative agencies fell into shutdown chaos, consumer activity had already begun to cool off—people were tightening their wallets, and spending growth was mainly being supported by high-income groups. Although Black Friday sales data remained fairly stable, underlying concerns have already started to accumulate.

However, the turning point came quickly. Another set of data released on the same day showed that consumer confidence rebounded in early December for the first time in five months. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose, driven by improved inflation expectations—people became less pessimistic about future price trends and felt more confident about their purchasing power.

This subtle shift is sending a signal to the market. On one hand, inflation data is loosening; on the other, consumer confidence is recovering. Will the Federal Reserve take this opportunity to adjust interest rate policy? The official stance is still cautious for now, but traders have already started repricing assets. The Bureau of Economic Analysis stated that the release date for the next PCE report has not yet been determined. Until then, everyone is waiting for more clues.