Recently, those who have been closely watching the market may have noticed a strange phenomenon: the price of stablecoins against the RMB has been dropping, even breaking below 6.95, yet major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually rising.

Many people are getting excited, thinking the market is about to take off. But to be honest, this situation actually makes me a bit worried.

What could be happening behind the scenes? I think there are a few possibilities:

**First, there isn’t actually new money coming in**
A lot of times when coin prices go up, people assume it’s outside capital entering the market. But the reality might be that those who were originally holding stablecoins are losing patience and starting to swap into major coins—in this case, coin prices go up, but the stablecoins are being sold off, so their price naturally drops. The money is still the same money, just being shuffled around inside the market.

**Second, someone might be intentionally pumping the price**
When there’s no real news in the market, someone can use concentrated funds to push prices up, creating an atmosphere of “it can’t drop anymore” or “it’s about to take off,” attracting retail investors to jump in. This tactic works especially well when market sentiment is fragile.

**Third, there may be other reasons for the stablecoin price decline**
A drop in stablecoin prices doesn’t mean US dollar funds are flowing into the crypto market. More likely, something has changed in domestic OTC supply and demand, such as tightened cash-out channels, changes in regulatory environment, etc.—this is a completely different issue from international capital flows.

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**Why is this kind of price increase a problem?**

Similar situations have happened before: coin prices rise, but there’s no real new capital coming in. This kind of rally usually doesn’t last long. Once the internal rotation is over, or the pumping funds lose interest, prices can drop suddenly, like the power just got cut.

This current divergence looks more like:
- Portfolio rebalancing out of anxiety among existing funds
- A technically-driven short-term rebound fueled by sentiment
- Not a true reversal driven by improved fundamentals

So if you feel tempted to chase the rally just because prices are going up, I suggest you stay calm and first ask: who is buying, and why? Don’t be fooled by surface-level gains.