🔥【The Federal Reserve Leadership Change Curse or Liquidity Turning Point? Bitcoin Is Standing at a Historical Fork in the Road】

Crypto veterans all understand an unwritten rule: When the Federal Reserve appoints a new chair, Bitcoin always undergoes a few months of “cleansing” before entering a real major rally.

Looking at historical data:

✅- 2014, Yellen took office: BTC’s maximum drawdown was 84%
✅- 2018, Powell took office: BTC’s maximum drawdown was 73%
✅- 2022, Powell was reappointed: BTC’s maximum drawdown was 61%

And now, with Kevin Warsh set to succeed Powell in June, the market is holding its breath: Will history repeat itself this time?

🚨 The “Dual Game” Behind the Leadership Change

1. Pressure from the White House to cut rates
Trump has publicly pressured that if Warsh does not cut rates in the June first-rate decision, he will be disappointed. The last meeting during Powell’s term (this Wednesday) is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, meaning the “relay baton” of policy expectations is quickly passing into Warsh’s hands.

2. Warsh’s own policy contradictions
He has publicly criticized the Fed’s low interest rates in 2021-2022 as a “fatal policy mistake,” and holds a strongly negative view on balance sheet expansion. But at the same time, he shows support for rate cuts, creating a “hawkish on balance sheet reduction + dovish on rate cuts” mixed stance, which makes the market uncertain about his policy direction after taking office.

💡 But don’t ignore a key signal: the liquidity turning point has arrived

The market has caught an underestimated positive signal: the Fed has increased its holdings of U.S. Treasuries by about $200 billion over the past few months, marking the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), and a “lightweight QE” has quietly begun.

This means:

✅- The dollar liquidity pump has stopped, and may even be reversing
🔥- The valuation logic of risk assets is shifting from “tightening expectations” to “preparing for easing”
✅- Historically, after each QT ends, Bitcoin has experienced a recovery rally

🎯 What’s next?

In the short term, the policy uncertainty brought by the new chair’s appointment may cause Bitcoin to face a wave of emotional volatility, or even an extreme “final dip.”

But in the longer cycle, the change in liquidity environment is the key variable determining the trend. No matter how Warsh’s initial statements sound, the end of QT has laid the groundwork for subsequent easing cycles, which are the long-term catalysts for risk assets like Bitcoin.

$BTC $GT $ETH @Gate Live
The current market is like waiting for a signal that “bad news is exhausted”—whether it will break the leadership change curse or complete one last deep squat, perhaps the answer will be revealed soon. #WCTC交易王PK #美国寻求战略比特币储备 #比特币ETF期权持仓限额增4倍 #美联储利率不变但内部分歧加剧