Anthropic’s valuation hits $800 billion, and AI begins entering the “Pricing Distortion Zone”

If you only look at the data, this company is almost flawless:

Revenue rises from 9 billion to 30 billion, enterprise customers surge, the models keep iterating, and the IPO window is approaching.

But the problem is—

The market is no longer “pricing based on performance,” but “pricing based on imagination.”

Anthropic was directly pushed to a $800 billion valuation by VC firms, already nearing OpenAI’s $852 billion—behind this is releasing a more important signal:

The AI sector is starting to enter the “primary-market accumulation phase.”

What does that mean?

It means the money doesn’t wait for you to go public before buying—instead, it front-loads the growth for the next few years before the IPO.

This is exactly the same as the internet and mobile internet cycles back then—

Real profits haven’t fully been realized yet, but valuations have already moved ahead and overdrawn them.

If you look at the driving logic, it’s actually very clear:

First, revenue is truly exploding

$30 billion in annualized revenue shows that AI has moved from the “telling stories” stage into the stage of “bringing in real cash.”

Second, demand from the enterprise side has been fully unlocked

Large customers doubling means, at the core, that AI is starting to embed into production systems—not just the tool layer.

Third, model iteration continues to reinforce expectations

The new model, Mythos, hasn’t been opened up yet, but “not opening it up is actually more valuable,” because it represents the ceiling.

Fourth, and most critically—IPO expectations

Once it lists, the release of liquidity will let early investors complete the exit loop—this is what VCs care about most.

But the issue is precisely here:

When the three things—“growth + expectations + liquidity”—stack together,

valuations often end up in an irrational range.

You can understand it simply as:

When you buy Anthropic now, it’s not essentially about buying $30 billion in revenue,

but about buying the probability that it may become a monopoly in AI infrastructure.

———

The guru’s view:

In this round of the AI boom, it has already shifted from “technology-driven” to “capital-driven.”

Next, you need to look at two things:

In the short term—

Funds will continue to cluster around top model companies; valuations can keep getting bid up, even beyond expectations.

In the medium term—

Once the IPO lands, or when growth shows marginal slowdown, high valuations will definitely be re-priced.

So the real opportunity isn’t necessarily in these companies themselves—the ones that have been bid up to the extreme—but in:

Within the AI industry chain, the links where “you can be certain they’ll make money,” but that haven’t yet been priced in sufficiently.

In other words:

Don’t just keep staring at the people who sell dreams,

start looking for—those who are already collecting money.
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