$BTC's RSI has historically been a great tell of when the bear market is finding its bottom, and it'll likely tell the same story again soon.


A couple findings:
Firstly, every bear market bottoms below RSI 37, and once RSI crosses below that threshold, it tends to drop a decent amount. So far this cycle, we're down roughly 30% from that level.
Less than 'usual', but not by a massive margin to make it a clear outlier. Sample size is small after all.
The bigger info is in how the actual lows form.
Every bear market low either forms or confirms a higher low in the RSI, near or below the price the market bottomed at - essentially giving a slightly better or worse entry, with reduced risk.
That higher low on the RSI either happens on a lower low in price or a higher low in price. It does not really matter which of the two historically, but a price lower low + RSI higher low is a weekly bullish divergence.
Either way, this suggests that waiting for more data tends to pay off. Sometimes it pays off with a lower entry, and when it doesn't, it pays off with confirmation.
Plan remains the same; I wait.
Discipline is easy when the market moves with your positioning in a straight line, but it hardly ever does. Let's see what we get - and act on that higher low in RSI when it comes.
🧘🏼‍♂️
BTC1.49%
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