Macroeconomics

2026-03-12 15:15 to 2026-03-12 15:30 (UTC), BTC recorded a +k-line return of 0.79%, with price fluctuating between 69702.5 and 70428.9 USDT, reaching an amplitude of 1.04%. Trading activity was robust during this time window, with noticeably elevated market attention and intensified short-term volatility. The primary driver of this price movement was on-chain large fund flows and increased institutional participation. During the same period, multiple large transfers exceeding 1,000 BTC flowed into exchange cold wallets, with whale addresses concentrating their buying activities. [Text appears to be incomplete]

Gate News reports that on March 12, the Trump administration plans to suspend the Jones Act (a shipping regulation that restricts cargo transportation between U.S. ports to American vessels) to moderate oil prices. The restrictions under this act have resulted in higher domestic oil transportation costs in the United States, and suspending the act could help lower oil prices.

Gate News reports that on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the United States currently holds 4.15 billion barrels of oil reserves. Wright said that U.S. President Trump is concerned about rising energy prices in the short term, and the release of strategic petroleum reserves is partly intended to ensure near-term oil supply in the Asia region.

Citibank raised its quarterly price forecast for Brent crude oil, projecting $75/barrel for Q1, $78/barrel for Q2, and $68/barrel for Q3. Due to geopolitical risks, oil prices could reach $80-100/barrel in the short term. Analysts believe escalating conflicts could cause turmoil in the oil market.

Robert Kiyosaki warned on X platform that 2026 will see the biggest stock market crash in history, and accused BlackRock of being a "Ponzi scheme." He advised investors to purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tangible assets like gold, even suggesting skipping meals to buy silver if lacking funds. He emphasized the importance of taking action and criticized current societal trends.

The Bank of Canada completed the "Project Samara" trial, successfully issuing 100 million CAD in tokenized government bonds, becoming the first case of bonds using distributed ledger technology. Participating institutions include multiple banks, aiming to improve financial market efficiency. The trial demonstrated that blockchain can shorten settlement times but requires overcoming regulatory challenges and exploring integration with existing systems. Financial institutions worldwide are increasingly concerned about tokenized assets, and Canada is also establishing a corresponding regulatory framework.

Gate News reports that on March 12, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 were 213,000, lower than market expectations of 215,000. Additionally, the previous value was revised from 213,000 to 214,000.

Gate News reported that on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated today that oil prices are unlikely to rise to $200 per barrel.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that strategic petroleum reserves will be released in the short term through an exchange mechanism, with 172 million barrels already released and 200 million barrels to be recovered. He pointed out that oil supply in the Western Hemisphere is normal, while tensions exist in the Asia-Pacific region, and emphasized that actions regarding Iran will take weeks rather than months, with naval escort measures to be deployed as soon as possible.

Due to the rise of stablecoins, traditional banks face medium-term risks of deposit outflows. Jefferies predicts that banks could lose 3% to 5% of core deposits within the next five years, which would impact bank profitability. Stablecoins have expanded into payments and corporate treasury management, with the market expected to grow significantly. Traditional financial institutions are actively deploying stablecoins to address these challenges, particularly as banks that rely on retail deposits will face greater risks.

Gate News, on March 12, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 at 20:30 Beijing time tonight, which may trigger market volatility.

Germany's longstanding rule allows Bitcoin holders to pay 0% capital gains tax if held for over a year, promoting long-term investment. Despite new EU transparency rules, this tax benefit remains a draw for investors.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its oil supply growth forecast for 2026, expecting supply growth of only 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023. Due to Middle East conflict reducing Gulf oil-producing nations' output, March oil supply is projected to fall to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2022.

Investor Robert Kiyosaki warns of a potential financial market collapse in 2026, citing unresolved issues from the 2008 crisis, rising global debt, and instability in private credit markets. He advises investors to consider safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies to mitigate risks.

Iran warns that if the US and Israel continue military actions, oil prices could soar to $200, potentially intensifying inflation and affecting the Bitcoin market. Although Bitcoin has recently rebounded, geopolitical conflicts have caused its performance to remain unstable, and analysts indicate that there may be significant fluctuations in the future, so investors should stay alert to potential risks.

As the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, the market is paying attention to their impact on Bitcoin's price movement. Historical data shows that midterm election years are usually accompanied by market weakness, with Bitcoin experiencing an average decline of 56%. However, the market tends to recover significantly after the elections, with both the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rebounding. Analysts believe that the second half of 2026 could become a key milestone for the Bitcoin market, but caution is advised regarding new impacts brought by changes in market structure.

The US February 2026 inflation rate remains steady at 2.40%, while cryptocurrency prices show little movement. Major US stock indexes declined, and the US Dollar strengthened amidst rising tensions in the Middle East.

The latest US CPI data released aligns with market expectations, but due to the impact of the Middle East situation, market reactions are muted. The US stock indices fluctuate, and BTC prices hover around $70,000. Although it appears stable in the short term, market sentiment remains pessimistic, and whether the price can stay above $70,000 in the future remains uncertain, mainly depending on the development of the Middle East situation. Meanwhile, Binance's net flow data shows that investors withdraw BTC during market downturns, but selling pressure still exists.

JPMorgan economists have pointed out that persistently high oil prices could prompt some Asian central banks to adopt hawkish policies, especially Singapore and Malaysia, while the likelihood of Indonesia and the Philippines cutting interest rates decreases. Fiscal policy will become the first line of defense against trade shocks, and the Bank of Korea's decision to raise interest rates will depend on the impact of oil prices on inflation.

Gate News Report, March 12, 2024: Software giant Atlassian plans to cut 1,600 jobs, approximately 10% of its global workforce. The move aims to respond to the rise of artificial intelligence and the overall slowdown in the industry. The Sydney-based company's founder, Mike Cannon-Brookes, explained the layoff decision in an internal memo and also announced that the company's Chief Technology Officer (CTO) will be departing.