Geopolitics

Gate News reported that on March 12, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani responded on March 12 local time to US President Trump's statement that "this war must be won quickly." Larijani pointed out that starting a war is easy, but ending a war cannot be achieved through just a few tweets. Once a war begins, its end is not easy. He also emphasized that Iran will never let the other side off easily.

Gate News reported that on March 12, Iran's state media released a statement stating that the wife of Supreme Leader Khamenei is still alive, and previous reports about her death are not true.

On March 12, Bitcoin's ratio against gold displayed bullish divergence, indicating weakened selling pressure and potentially serving as a reference point for Bitcoin's long-term trend bottom. Bitcoin ETF net inflows reached approximately $906 million, while gold ETF experienced single-day outflows of $3 billion, forming a notable divergence. Despite ETF trading volume being lower than US equities, there remains significant room for institutional capital entry. Historically, Bitcoin has often rebounded following geopolitical turmoil.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright pledged to take responsibility for an erroneous social media post and will personally review future content before publication. The post about naval escorts for oil tankers was previously deleted, triggering market volatility. The White House subsequently clarified that the U.S. was not escorting the vessel.

Gate News reports that on March 12, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the United States currently holds 4.15 billion barrels of oil reserves. Wright said that U.S. President Trump is concerned about rising energy prices in the short term, and the release of strategic petroleum reserves is partly intended to ensure near-term oil supply in the Asia region.

Iran's Supreme Leader announced that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, causing geopolitical tensions and raising international oil prices. U.S. oil stocks and crude oil ETFs surged significantly. Whale address neoyokio.eth opened a 4x leveraged long position on crude oil on the Hyperliquid platform, investing 5.2 million dollars, with current unrealized gains of 32,000 dollars.

Citibank raised its quarterly price forecast for Brent crude oil, projecting $75/barrel for Q1, $78/barrel for Q2, and $68/barrel for Q3. Due to geopolitical risks, oil prices could reach $80-100/barrel in the short term. Analysts believe escalating conflicts could cause turmoil in the oil market.

Dispute over stablecoin reward programs between banks and crypto firms has slowed progress on the Senate Clarity Act. Banks warn rewards could trigger deposit flight, while crypto advocates say evidence of major shifts is limited. Lawmakers including Sens. Alsobrooks and Tillis are

Analyst Dara Doyle stated that following Mujtaba Khamenei's election, his hawkish rhetoric indicates Iran is not prepared to make concessions to the US and Israel, will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz, and threatens to open new fronts. This has intensified market concerns about oil supply disruptions, leading to rising oil prices and US Treasury yields, falling stock markets, and the US dollar index reaching intraday highs.

The UK Tax and Customs Authority plans to procure blockchain forensics software to strengthen its efforts against digital asset money laundering and tax fraud, with a total value of approximately 3.42 million pounds and a three-year contract term. This move reflects global emphasis on digital asset compliance, highlighting the importance of cross-chain tracking and data analysis.

Gate News reports that on March 12, Canada's Foreign Minister stated that the foreign ministers of the G7 will hold a meeting in Paris on March 24-25 to discuss efforts to promote diplomacy to end the Iran war.

Gate News Reports: On March 12, US President Trump issued a statement regarding oil prices and Iran's nuclear weapons issue. Trump stated that the United States is the world's largest oil producer, far ahead of other countries, and therefore benefits considerably when oil prices rise. However, he emphasized that as president, the more important task is to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons and to prevent this country from destabilizing the Middle East and even the entire world. Trump said: "I will never let this happen!"

Gate News report: On March 12, the U.S. Department of Defense Chief Technology Officer Emil Michael recently disclosed that OpenAI has obtained the same cooperation terms with the U.S. Central Command as Anthropic. Michael stated that Anthropic is attempting to redefine the meaning of "domestic surveillance," with the intention of transferring this power from Congress's hands, and that its policy preferences are contaminating the supply chain. The U.S. Department of Defense plans to replace Anthropic with other systems within 6 months, during which it will be closely monitored to ensure control remains in the department's hands.

Gate News reported that on March 12, EU member states will notify the International Energy Agency (IEA, the global energy policy coordination agency) of their intention to release oil reserves before 16:00 Greenwich Mean Time today (00:00 Beijing time on March 24).

Monex Europe analyst report indicates that the Iran conflict is driving safe-haven flows toward the US dollar, and the dollar may continue to be supported in the short term due to rising oil prices and the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight monetary policy. However, in the long term, receding energy price concerns could expose the dollar to downside risks.

Gate News reports that on March 12, according to Golden Ten, Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will issue his first message within minutes.

Reports indicate that a certain crypto trading platform has lobbied U.S. lawmakers against tax exemptions for small Bitcoin transactions, proposing that such measures be limited to stablecoins only. Bitcoin advocates have expressed concerns, believing this may benefit special interests and hinder innovation. Bitcoin policy institutions have called for tax exemptions on small Bitcoin transactions.

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that strategic petroleum reserves will be released in the short term through an exchange mechanism, with 172 million barrels already released and 200 million barrels to be recovered. He pointed out that oil supply in the Western Hemisphere is normal, while tensions exist in the Asia-Pacific region, and emphasized that actions regarding Iran will take weeks rather than months, with naval escort measures to be deployed as soon as possible.

Gate News: On March 12, the Israeli Defense Force claimed to have destroyed two-thirds of Iran's ballistic missile launchers.

Gate News report: On March 12, Arthur Hayes posted that BTC has accumulated gains of approximately 7% since the US-Iran conflict erupted on February 28, while gold declined approximately 2% over the same period, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (US technology stock benchmark index) experienced a slight decline of approximately 0.5%.