In statistics, there's a concept called "survivor bias," which refers to researchers focusing only on the common characteristics of "survivors" while ignoring information about the "failures."
A classic example is during World War II when mathematician Abraham Wald was tasked with researching how to reinforce the armor of British bombers. On the returning aircraft, bullet holes were concentrated mainly on the wings and tail, but Wald believed the cockpit and fuel tanks should be reinforced instead, because bombers hit in these areas simply didn't make it back.
The same logic applies to books that tell the success secrets of entrepreneurs. Blindly copying the advice in such books doesn't mean you can replicate success—what's actually more valuable is analyzing the mistakes made by failed companies.
It's the same in our circle too. Everyone always stares at those rare, most sensational success stories. For example, who made millions on SHIB or NFT projects, yet few people analyze what went wrong with those bankrupt exchanges and funds: fraud, excessive leverage trading, risk control failures.
Learn from others' mistakes. Sometimes the cost of your own mistakes is too heavy to bear!
Survivor Bias
In statistics, there's a concept called "survivor bias," which refers to researchers focusing only on the common characteristics of "survivors" while ignoring information about the "failures."
A classic example is during World War II when mathematician Abraham Wald was tasked with researching how to reinforce the armor of British bombers. On the returning aircraft, bullet holes were concentrated mainly on the wings and tail, but Wald believed the cockpit and fuel tanks should be reinforced instead, because bombers hit in these areas simply didn't make it back.
The same logic applies to books that tell the success secrets of entrepreneurs. Blindly copying the advice in such books doesn't mean you can replicate success—what's actually more valuable is analyzing the mistakes made by failed companies.
It's the same in our circle too. Everyone always stares at those rare, most sensational success stories. For example, who made millions on SHIB or NFT projects, yet few people analyze what went wrong with those bankrupt exchanges and funds: fraud, excessive leverage trading, risk control failures.
Learn from others' mistakes. Sometimes the cost of your own mistakes is too heavy to bear!