Alert: Will PCE "backstab" tonight? The Fed's favorite mild indicator may betray us! Crypto players, don't sleep through tonight!
At 8:30 PM tonight, a major bombshell will be dropped — the U.S. January PCE price index. Usually, everyone focuses on CPI and feels relieved that inflation is coming down. But this PCE is different — it's the Fed's favorite child, typically more "mild" than CPI, and this time it may actually betray expectations.
The market expects core PCE year-over-year to accelerate to 3.1%. The key is in the details: items like computer software and jewelry that have low weight in CPI are actually "big shots" in PCE. As it turns out, prices for these surged in February. Major banks like Barclays predict that February PCE core goods prices could rise 0.8%, which is 10 times the data shown in CPI!
Personal view: This is hilarious — CPI says inflation is fine, but PCE could be very hot. Plus this is data from before oil prices skyrocketed due to the Israel-Iran war. If tonight's data explodes, it's essentially telling the Fed: don't rush to cut rates!
Impact on crypto and what to do: This is major bearish for Bitcoin! Once the data comes out, the dollar will surge, and risk assets will be drained first. My suggestion: don't get emotional and open long positions before the data is released — it's best to stay in cash and observe. If the data truly exceeds expectations and explodes, Bitcoin could plunge directly with a needle drop, so having good stop-losses is more important than anything. This is the liquidation moment after "data warfare" — don't try to catch falling knives!
What players should do is "wait patiently for opportunities, strike decisively and steadily." $BTC
Alert: Will PCE "backstab" tonight? The Fed's favorite mild indicator may betray us! Crypto players, don't sleep through tonight!
At 8:30 PM tonight, a major bombshell will be dropped — the U.S. January PCE price index. Usually, everyone focuses on CPI and feels relieved that inflation is coming down. But this PCE is different — it's the Fed's favorite child, typically more "mild" than CPI, and this time it may actually betray expectations.
The market expects core PCE year-over-year to accelerate to 3.1%. The key is in the details: items like computer software and jewelry that have low weight in CPI are actually "big shots" in PCE. As it turns out, prices for these surged in February. Major banks like Barclays predict that February PCE core goods prices could rise 0.8%, which is 10 times the data shown in CPI!
Personal view: This is hilarious — CPI says inflation is fine, but PCE could be very hot. Plus this is data from before oil prices skyrocketed due to the Israel-Iran war. If tonight's data explodes, it's essentially telling the Fed: don't rush to cut rates!
Impact on crypto and what to do: This is major bearish for Bitcoin! Once the data comes out, the dollar will surge, and risk assets will be drained first. My suggestion: don't get emotional and open long positions before the data is released — it's best to stay in cash and observe. If the data truly exceeds expectations and explodes, Bitcoin could plunge directly with a needle drop, so having good stop-losses is more important than anything. This is the liquidation moment after "data warfare" — don't try to catch falling knives!
What players should do is "wait patiently for opportunities, strike decisively and steadily." $BTC