2026年のイーサリアムレイヤー2エコシステムはもはや実験や投機的成長によって定義されるものではなく、配分力、機関インフラ、決済層の効率性によって形作られています。これにより、核心的な問いは「買う価値のある下げなのか」または「忍耐と構造的確認を必要とするフェーズなのか」に置き換わります。配分の進化するL2階層を理解することは、資産配分の決定を行う前に不可欠です。 TheBaseTakeoverWhenDistributionWins while Arbitrum and Optimism spent years cultivating crypto-native communities Base leveraged Coinbase’s global user base to dominate retail adoption and revenue generation as of early 2026 Base controls approximately 47.6 percent of L2 TVL peaking near 4.39 billion dollars generates around 70 percent of total L2 fee revenue roughly 147 thousand dollars daily and has evolved from a meme-driven ecosystem into a super-app environment supporting payments trading gaming and consumer applications Base’s success highlights a structural reality in mature markets distribution consistently outperforms pure technical superiority access to millions of verified users translates directly into sustainable fee generation and ecosystem stickiness making Base the clearest example of retail-driven network effects in crypto today ArbitrumAndOptimismTheInstitutionalPivot the former leaders of the L2 race are no longer competing for mass-market volume instead they are positioning as institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure Arbitrum One maintains roughly 27 percent market share hosts the deepest liquidity pools processes volumes rivaling or exceeding Ethereum mainnet and serves as the default venue for large-scale trading derivatives and structured products its strength lies in reliability and liquidity depth making it the preferred venue for professional capital Optimism through OP Mainnet and the Superchain approach holds around 6 billion dollars in TVL focusing on a federated network of OP Stack chains sharing security tooling and liquidity rather than competing as a single chain Optimism is building interoperable execution layers optimized for scalability modularity and enterprise partnerships together Arbitrum and Optimism now represent the institutional layer of Ethereum’s L2 economy ZKRollupsTheLongTermSlowBurn zero-knowledge rollups remain the most technically advanced architecture offering superior security and near-instant finality however complexity has slowed adoption zkSync Era leads the sector operating an elastic network of more than 19 chains favored for gaming private transactions and high-frequency applications collectively ZK rollups hold approximately 3.5 to 5 billion dollars in TVL smaller than optimistic rollups but positioned as long-term infrastructure for mission-critical systems ZK rollups are trading short-term growth for architectural resilience creating optionality for future demand in AI payments and enterprise-grade applications TheMacroShiftEthereumAsASettlementLayer the most important structural change in 2026 is the separation between Ethereum L1 and L2 execution Ethereum is evolving into a global settlement and security layer while execution migrates to rollups L2s now account for over 95 percent of Ethereum-related activity system-wide throughput has increased from roughly 50 TPS in 2023 to over 325 today while mainnet fees remain compressed due to rollup offloading this mirrors traditional financial systems where settlement and execution are separated positioning Ethereum as a digital clearinghouse rather than a retail transaction network enhancing scalability without compromising decentralization or security BuyTheDipOrWaitStrategicImplications the correct approach depends on positioning and time horizon buying the dip makes sense when Base Arbitrum OP and ZK ecosystems hold key support L2 revenues remain stable ETH settlement demand persists and macro conditions stabilize under these conditions pullbacks represent structural accumulation zones patience is wiser when L2 revenues decline TVL migrates away from major chains Ethereum settlement fees weaken and macro liquidity tightens in such environments capital preservation outweighs opportunistic accumulation KeyTakeaways Base dominates through distribution and retail adoption Arbitrum and Optimism serve institutional and modular finance ZK rollups represent long-term technical infrastructure Ethereum is consolidating its role as a settlement layer and L2 fundamentals now outweigh narrative-driven speculation Conclusion the 2026 L2 landscape is defined by specialization revenue generation and structural maturity this is no longer a speculative playground but an emerging financial infrastructure stack success now depends on understanding where value is created where liquidity concentrates and how execution layers interact with settlement security buy blindly and you follow hype buy strategically and you follow structure
#BuyTheDipOrWaitNow? BuyTheDipOrWaitNowEthereumL2PowerShiftAndMarketPositioning2026Outlook
2026年のイーサリアムレイヤー2エコシステムはもはや実験や投機的成長によって定義されるものではなく、配分力、機関インフラ、決済層の効率性によって形作られています。これにより、核心的な問いは「買う価値のある下げなのか」または「忍耐と構造的確認を必要とするフェーズなのか」に置き換わります。配分の進化するL2階層を理解することは、資産配分の決定を行う前に不可欠です。
TheBaseTakeoverWhenDistributionWins while Arbitrum and Optimism spent years cultivating crypto-native communities Base leveraged Coinbase’s global user base to dominate retail adoption and revenue generation as of early 2026 Base controls approximately 47.6 percent of L2 TVL peaking near 4.39 billion dollars generates around 70 percent of total L2 fee revenue roughly 147 thousand dollars daily and has evolved from a meme-driven ecosystem into a super-app environment supporting payments trading gaming and consumer applications Base’s success highlights a structural reality in mature markets distribution consistently outperforms pure technical superiority access to millions of verified users translates directly into sustainable fee generation and ecosystem stickiness making Base the clearest example of retail-driven network effects in crypto today
ArbitrumAndOptimismTheInstitutionalPivot the former leaders of the L2 race are no longer competing for mass-market volume instead they are positioning as institutional-grade DeFi infrastructure Arbitrum One maintains roughly 27 percent market share hosts the deepest liquidity pools processes volumes rivaling or exceeding Ethereum mainnet and serves as the default venue for large-scale trading derivatives and structured products its strength lies in reliability and liquidity depth making it the preferred venue for professional capital Optimism through OP Mainnet and the Superchain approach holds around 6 billion dollars in TVL focusing on a federated network of OP Stack chains sharing security tooling and liquidity rather than competing as a single chain Optimism is building interoperable execution layers optimized for scalability modularity and enterprise partnerships together Arbitrum and Optimism now represent the institutional layer of Ethereum’s L2 economy
ZKRollupsTheLongTermSlowBurn zero-knowledge rollups remain the most technically advanced architecture offering superior security and near-instant finality however complexity has slowed adoption zkSync Era leads the sector operating an elastic network of more than 19 chains favored for gaming private transactions and high-frequency applications collectively ZK rollups hold approximately 3.5 to 5 billion dollars in TVL smaller than optimistic rollups but positioned as long-term infrastructure for mission-critical systems ZK rollups are trading short-term growth for architectural resilience creating optionality for future demand in AI payments and enterprise-grade applications
TheMacroShiftEthereumAsASettlementLayer the most important structural change in 2026 is the separation between Ethereum L1 and L2 execution Ethereum is evolving into a global settlement and security layer while execution migrates to rollups L2s now account for over 95 percent of Ethereum-related activity system-wide throughput has increased from roughly 50 TPS in 2023 to over 325 today while mainnet fees remain compressed due to rollup offloading this mirrors traditional financial systems where settlement and execution are separated positioning Ethereum as a digital clearinghouse rather than a retail transaction network enhancing scalability without compromising decentralization or security
BuyTheDipOrWaitStrategicImplications the correct approach depends on positioning and time horizon buying the dip makes sense when Base Arbitrum OP and ZK ecosystems hold key support L2 revenues remain stable ETH settlement demand persists and macro conditions stabilize under these conditions pullbacks represent structural accumulation zones patience is wiser when L2 revenues decline TVL migrates away from major chains Ethereum settlement fees weaken and macro liquidity tightens in such environments capital preservation outweighs opportunistic accumulation
KeyTakeaways Base dominates through distribution and retail adoption Arbitrum and Optimism serve institutional and modular finance ZK rollups represent long-term technical infrastructure Ethereum is consolidating its role as a settlement layer and L2 fundamentals now outweigh narrative-driven speculation
Conclusion the 2026 L2 landscape is defined by specialization revenue generation and structural maturity this is no longer a speculative playground but an emerging financial infrastructure stack success now depends on understanding where value is created where liquidity concentrates and how execution layers interact with settlement security buy blindly and you follow hype buy strategically and you follow structure