Gold prices in New York have dropped again over the past two days. I just checked the market: June 2026 gold futures are down by $38.6, and are currently around $4,841 per ounce, a decline of nearly 0.8%. Silver is falling even more sharply— the May contract has been hit directly down by 2.39%.

The main reason is still the uncertainty in geopolitics. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement in two weeks is close to expiring, but negotiations are a complete mess, with both sides trading blame. The United States continues to block the strait, and Iran is also hesitating over whether to continue talks. This kind of uncertainty directly weighs down the prices of gold and silver.

However, from a broader perspective, the scope of this shock is quite wide. The International Monetary Fund has already lowered this year’s global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 3.1%, and at the same time has raised inflation expectations. The purchasing managers’ index data from various countries is set to be released this week. Data from Germany, France, the Eurozone, and the UK are expected to deteriorate, which suggests that the risk of stagflation is increasing.

What’s interesting is that, although short-term gold prices are being suppressed by these uncertainties, in the long run, HSBC analysts believe that the medium- to long-term outlook for the gold market in New York remains optimistic. Factors such as rising geopolitical risks, an increase in fiscal deficits, and continued central bank buying will continue to support gold prices. So this decline may just be a short-term adjustment.