Middle East this pot of porridge, the more you stir, the thicker it gets

Over the weekend, Iran escalated again. The US-Israel coalition bombed power plants and steel factories, and the Houthi forces are not idle either, launching missiles at Israel, effectively opening a second front. Countries like Saudi Arabia are very unhappy about Iran's claim to sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that it is not conducive to a ceasefire.
The US Marine Corps has already arrived, and the island seizure plan is reportedly just waiting for Trump’s approval, with market predictions exceeding 50%.
The religious factions involved are quite interesting: the Houthis and Iran are both Shia, but different branches. They are allies, but Iran cannot control them; Hezbollah is different, directly loyal to Iran’s Supreme Leader, essentially hierarchical. Although Hezbollah is Lebanese, its loyalty is to Iran—Lebanon wants good relations with Israel, but the Shia, who make up 1/3 of the population, feel they represent Iran’s interests. In a country, each side seeks a transnational big brother, making consensus very difficult.
Going deeper, the history of the Middle East has seen the Persian, Arab, and Ottoman empires. Now, each country wants to be the heir, dreaming of a “Great Revival.” The stronger ones start to infiltrate their neighbors, and religion is the best tool. Iran is just the latest to emerge.
The good news is that Thailand has negotiated with Iran, allowing a ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with a toll of $2 million. The bad news is that the conflict seems to be long-term, which will intensify its impact on the global economy.
700 million Americans have gathered to oppose Trump, mainly against the Iran war. Vans also stated that the US military will withdraw in the short term, hinting that ground troops may not be deployed. Trump is familiar with this scene; the Vietnam War ended like this.
On Friday night, crude oil prices surged sharply, and strangely, gold also rose significantly. The rise in crude oil is understandable, but gold… safe-haven sentiment has returned. $BTC ‌#震荡行情交易策略 $XAU ‌