The Fed just said inflation is not going where markets thought it was going

That matters more than yesterday's ceasefire rally.

The March FOMC minutes, released April 8, showed that the vast majority of Fed officials believe inflation progress could be slower than previously expected. Three reasons: tariff effects on goods prices taking longer to fade, oil prices bleeding into core inflation readings, and years of above-target inflation making consumers more tolerant of further price increases.

The Fed funds rate is currently sitting at 3.50% to 3.75%. The median dot plot from the March meeting pencils in just one 25 basis point cut for all of 2026. Seven officials saw zero cuts this year. Seven saw one. That is not a rate cut cycle. That is a committee that is stuck and knows it.

Nick Timiraos published this on April 8. He is the journalist Fed officials use when they want the market to hear something without an official press conference. When he writes that the path to rate cuts has narrowed, that is not analysis. That is a signal.

The timing is what makes this uncomfortable. BTC just ran to $72,600 on ceasefire optimism. Risk assets priced in a cleaner macro environment. Now the Fed minutes are saying inflation stalled, the labor market held up too well, and PCE is not declining fast enough.

Rate cuts were part of the bull case for this leg of the crypto rally. That case just got quietly walked back by the people who actually set rates.

The market has not fully priced this in yet.

#BTC #macro #GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge