Multiple "insider" new accounts make moves, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files this year

On December 8, according to PolyBeats, the prediction market “Will Trump declassify UFO files in 2025?” surged from 5% to 71% within half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations that UFO information may soon be made public. The establishment of this market is based on Trump’s explicit political promise during his 2024 campaign to “declassify everything,” as well as the mandatory declassification requirements for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Trading data shows that this probability increase was initiated by trader ster. He began continuously buying “Yes” shares when the market was established, and yesterday’s sharp rise in probability was also due to his sweeping market orders during a period of low liquidity, driving the probability higher. Reviewing his trading history reveals that his operations are more consistent with a “buy low, pump the price, sell high” trading pattern, rather than that of an insider. On the opposing side of ster, six accounts’ actions within 12 hours after the probability spike are even more noteworthy. They collectively bought over 20,000 “No” shares at an average price of less than $0.20, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files in 2025. These accounts share a common characteristic: this is their only position on Polymarket. The fact that these six accounts acted simultaneously with such consistency in timing, price, and position size presents another possible scenario for this market movement: these six accounts used AARO’s website updates as a “smokescreen,” intentionally or passively pushing up the “Yes” probability, causing the “No” price to bottom out, allowing them to build positions at a low cost. These traders are well aware that routine updates to the AARO website are insufficient to meet the market’s strict adjudication standards, so they engaged in reverse arbitrage under this information asymmetry, betting that the market will ultimately settle as “No.”