# FedPolicy

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#FedLeadershipImpact – How Much Did Fed Leadership Change Affect Markets?
When President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a known monetary hawk, as Fed Chair, markets reacted immediately—but this was more of a policy repricing than a crash.
📉 Short-Term Market Shock
Crypto: Bitcoin fell from ~$78K → $68K (-12–13%). Total crypto market cap dropped 8–10% ($400–500B wiped out).
US Equities: Nasdaq & high-growth tech: -6–9%, S&P 500: -4–6%, AI & speculative stocks: -10–15%.
Why: Markets feared faster balance sheet reduction, less emergency liquidity, and fewer surprise rate cuts. Risk assets sold fir
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🚨 FED RATE CUT OUTLOOK (Polymarket Data): As of today, in the Polymarket contract for "Will the Fed cut rates in September 2025?", the probability of a "25 basis point (bps) rate cut" has surged to 87% — a historical high.
🔥 Comparative Probabilities: The likelihood of a "50 bps rate cut" stands at 9%, "no change" at 4%, and the "rate hike" option is nearly zero.
📊 Trading Volume Breakdown: Total trading volume for this forecast event has exceeded $76M. The "50 bps rate cut" contract leads with over $16.94M in volume, followed by the "25 bps rate cut" contract at $12.04M. Since early August
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