Goldman Sachs: Don't be fooled by the mild facade of Trump's tariffs; rates may far exceed expectations. On March 25, Goldman Sachs economists pointed out that recent media reports indicate that the Trump administration is leaning towards a more moderate stance on tariffs. However, they wrote not to be misled by this facade: such an attitude is likely to bring negative surprises to the market.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the Trump administration has always viewed tariffs as a negotiating tool and is likely hoping to start negotiations from a position of strength. A recent survey by Goldman Sachs shows that market participants believe the reciprocal tariff rate set to be implemented in April will reach 9%.

Goldman Sachs itself expects that the initial tariff rate could be twice the anticipated rate, which means the market may face a negative surprise next week.