Over the weekend, not looking at the new high, the most basic thing is to retrace 38.2% of the increase in the past 24 hours, and retesting Margin Replenishment will not pump the average cost too high. Do not chase the market at the current price, some people said in the morning that it was too strong to fall down at all, this view is wrong, we should look at things with the perspective of development. Strong in the morning does not mean there will be no retracement after noon. Even if it is strong, it will not be easy to stay at 63800 all at once, not to mention that the starting point near 65000 this morning was near 60666 last night, with an increase of more than 4k points, it is impossible not to retest.

A few days ago, it was mentioned that after breaking through the resistance, there would be a small one-way rise in the market (originally thought that it would only hype the rate cut expectation 1-2 weeks in advance, ignoring the timing of Powell's speech on 8.23, and the current market data is clear). Next, there may be a slow upward oscillation for 2-3 weeks, and there will still be short opportunities for resistance and pullback in the middle, but the market data has turned to longer dominance, so Long should be the priority, with shorting as a supplement. Long positions can try to take profit in batches at 66600, 68350, and keep chasing the market after 75% of the profit is locked. This rise is the early digestion of the rate cut expectation in September, and the rate cut is basically 100% confirmed. When the rate cut lands on September 18, there will be a fierce dump. Set an alarm, and run on 9.17 in advance to lock in the profits to avoid giving back. The middle of the third month of each quarter is usually the time for a change in market trend, and the decline is to pave the way for a new market trend in the next quarter. The opportunity for Margin Replenishment in Spot will be in the middle and late of next month, if the fourth quarter starts to trend upward in a one-way rise, then there will need to be a bigger adjustment in late September.