I noticed an interesting point in the oil market — for the first time in four years, WTI has surpassed Brent in price. It may sound a bit dull, but it actually reflects deep shifts in the global energy sector after the conflict between the US and Iran began back in late February.

The essence of what’s happening is a reassessment of delivery risks. Previously, Brent received a premium as the benchmark for global sea-based oil trade. But when the Strait of Hormuz essentially closed, everything changed. Oil from the Persian Gulf, Oman, the UAE — all of it now carries enormous risk. Tanker insurance costs skyrocketed, and some supplies simply stopped.

At the same time, WTI has an advantage with land pipelines — directly to refineries in the Gulf of Mexico. When maritime routes become dangerous zones, land logistics suddenly become king. The market quickly understood this.

Jermini from Germini Energy precisely noted the point: buyers stopped paying a premium for oil that supposedly represents the global market. Now they pay for the oil they can actually obtain. That’s pragmatism.

The market structure is now completely extreme. December WTI contracts are trading around $77 per barrel, while May contracts are $25 higher. People are buying spot oil, trying to compensate for current disruptions and simultaneously hoping the conflict will soon ease.

On the physical market, Brent has already gone above $140 per barrel. Analysts from Stratas Advisors warn that if the US declares a full maritime blockade of Iranian ports, spot Brent could soar to $160–190. That would be critical for the global economy.

If prices stay at these levels for a long time, demand will start to break down. Consumers will sharply cut consumption, and a global recession could unfold. Paradoxically, this might be the only way to force both sides back to negotiations. The market acts as pressure.