Trump Criticizes the World as a 'Casino' Amid Rising Concerns of 'Insider Trading'

On April 24, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly criticized geopolitical gambling, stating that ‘the world has become a casino.’ However, numerous cases of ‘timely trading’ have emerged, raising suspicions about policy information leaks and potential market manipulation. The latest case reveals that a U.S. soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro placed a bet of over $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before Trump announced the operation, ultimately profiting over $400,000. The soldier has since been arrested, and the case has been classified as typical ‘insider trading in prediction markets.’ More concerning is the ‘collective front-running’ in the commodities market. At multiple critical junctures, significant trading in crude oil and stock index futures occurred minutes to hours before Trump announced policy shifts (such as ceasefires or delays in strikes). For instance: On April 7, around 15:45 Eastern Time, over 15 million barrels of crude oil futures (approximately $1.7 billion) were traded within two minutes, three hours before Trump announced a ceasefire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices and a rebound in the stock market; On March 23, just 16 minutes before he announced a delay in strikes against Iran, billions of dollars in crude oil and stock index futures had already changed hands. These trades, due to their ‘perfect timing,’ have drawn regulatory scrutiny. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has initiated an investigation under political pressure, with several lawmakers pointing out that the related trades ‘are hard to explain by luck.’ Although the White House denies that officials have profited from insider information and emphasizes that there is no evidence of wrongdoing by government personnel, it has issued internal warnings prohibiting the use of non-public information for trading. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of prediction markets and event-driven derivatives exacerbates the issue of information asymmetry. Data shows that geopolitical bets on Polymarket have surged to $560 million in a single week, becoming one of the fastest-growing segments. Overall, from on-chain prediction markets to traditional futures markets, the pattern of ‘policy signals → capital front-running → price volatility’ is repeatedly emerging, with the Trump administration’s foreign decision-making rhythm increasingly viewed by the market as a tradable ‘source of information.’