Will the ceasefire collapse? The answer is quite harsh: It won't completely collapse, but it will remain "half dead and half alive."

Many people prefer a binary choice:
Either total war or complete peace.
But the reality is a third option:
Persistent tension, but no full-scale fighting.
The game between Iran and the United States is essentially a "controlled conflict."
What does that mean?
Fight a little, make the other side uncomfortable;
But don't fight to the point where it can't be resolved.
So, a ceasefire is more likely to become a strange state:
✔ in name only
✔ actual friction ongoing
The market fears this situation the most—because it has no clear end point.
Oil prices will enter a range of "high volatility but not trending,"
Rising but not soaring;
Falling but not crashing.
Investors will find:
They can't make big money, but it's easy to lose a lot.
This is the most frustrating market. #美伊谈判陷入僵局